Uptodatepronto posted the results of the July 2013 poll of r/SyrianCivilWar opinions in the Syrian conflicts. With only 333 samples, a huge unknown self-selection bias and who knows what ballot stuffing, this data must be taken as anecdotal.
There were three questions :
- Who do you support in the Syrian Civil War ?
- Do you believe there can be a political solution to the conflict ?
- Who, if anyone should the United States, France and Britain arm ?
The possible answers to the first question were quite sparse, so I decided to aggregate them to have large enough samples in each category… I’m sure that many will object to the mixed bag that I made of the ‘Government’ and ‘Rebels’ aggregates – did I mention that I’m a clueless foreign observer ?
|None of the factions involved||Neutral|
|Islamic State of Iraq and Levant|
I consider the first and third questions to be redundant : while a majority rejects foreign injection of weapons into the conflict, there is a strong correlation between support for a given side and desire to see it armed… Though two government-side supporters want arms for the FSA and one government-side supporter wants them for ‘anyone who opposes the Assad regime’ – remember what I said about the data ?
|Who, if anyone should the United States, France and Britain arm ?|
|Who do you support in the Syrian Civil War ?||No-one||FSA through Supreme Military Council||SAA||Kurds||Anyone who opposes the Assad regime|
Now, let’s perform the cross tabulation that I came here for :
|Do you believe there can be a political solution to the conflict ?|
|Who do you support in the Syrian Civil War ?||Certainly||Very likely||Likely||Maybe||Unlikely||Very unlikely||Impossible|
From that chart lets graph the proportion of supporters of each aggregate party for the total of each political solution likelihood answer class :
From this representation, I make the following observations:
- Neutrals and supporters of factions aligned with the government are slightly more likely to believe in the likelihood of a political solution
- Kurds and other rebels are more likely to find a political solution highly unlikely
Those could be interesting hypothesis to test in a wider and more disciplined survey… So, more than ever, the real conclusion is : moar data !
The worksheet I produced this from is available here but, again I must emphasize how lacking the raw material is.